the klog

I'm sure Katrina has made most people in other parts of the country think about potential natural disaster where they live. I went and looked up information on earthquakes in the Bay Area. A 2003 US Geological Survey study showed that there is a 62% chance of one or more major earthquakes hitting the Bay Area within the next 30 years, with "major" defined as magnitude > 6.7.

They've got lots of handy graphs, but the loss estimation page is what I found most interesting. Some highlights:

• The estimated number of deaths is in the hundreds for most scenarios, but as high as several thousand in the worst case.
• Expected fatalities are five times higher if an earthquake hits during working hours, compared to late night. This is because most residences are wood and pretty resistent, but commercial buildings are of varying degrees of vulnerability.
• 16,000 homes were rendered uninhabitable by the 1989 Loma Prieta quake, but this number could be as high as 150,000 in the worst case scenarios.
• The most property damage would be along the 880, from the Hayward fault, so be careful, Fremont people!
• There could be tens of billions of dollars in damage if the Hetch-Hetchy aqueduct system is damaged.

In more light-hearted disaster news, here's the Pompeii Graffiti. It's interesting to see the everyday side of Roman society. (Though keep in mind that Pompeii was a resort town with lots of rich people.) They include such wonderful insights as:

• "Satura was here on September 3rd"
• "Marcus loves Spendusa"
• "Theophilus, don’t perform oral sex on girls against the city wall like a dog"
• "Cruel Lalagus, why do you not love me?"
• "Defecator, may everything turn out okay so that you can leave this place"
• "Weep, you girls. My penis has given you up. Now it penetrates men’s behinds. Goodbye, wondrous femininity!"

And my favorite:

• "On April 19th, I made bread"